University of Pennsylvania EES scientists Michael E. Mann and Julia L. Seidenstein, and Penn State ESSC alumnus Michael Kozar have released their seasonal prediction for the 2026 North Atlantic hurricane season, which officially starts on 1 June and runs through 30 November.
The prediction is for 9.7 +/- 3.1 total named tropical cyclones, which corresponds to a range between 7 and 13 storms, with a best estimate of 10 named storms. This prediction was made using the statistical model of Kozar et al. (2012, see PDF here). This statistical model builds upon the past work of Sabbatelli and Mann (2007, see PDF here) by considering a larger number of climate predictors and including corrections for the historical undercount of events (see footnotes).
The assumptions behind this forecast are (a) the persistence of current North Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (+0.55°C in April 2026 from NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch throughout the 2026 hurricane season, (b) presence of positive El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions in the equatorial Pacific in late Boreal summer and fall 2026 using the average of the dynamical models forecast SST anomaly for a Niño-3.4 index of 1.81°C during Dec-Jan-Feb (ENSO Forecast here; we used mid-April 2026), and (c) climatological mean conditions for the North Atlantic Oscillation in Fall/Winter 2025-2026.
We investigated both the low and high end members of the current dynamic models’ forecast SST anomaly. If milder El Niño conditions take shape later in 2026, then the prediction will be slightly higher: 11.1 +/- 3.3 storms, or a range of 8 – 14 storms, with a best estimate of 9 (using a Niño-3.4 index of 0.95°C). If stronger El Niño conditions take shape, then the prediction will be slightly lower: 8.0 +/- 2.8 storms, or a range of 5 – 11 storms, with a best estimate of 8 (using a Niño-3.4 index of 2.93°C).
Previous Forecasts:
| Year (click to see forecast) | Prediction | Best Guess | Range | Actual Count |
| 2025 | 13.9 +/- 3.7 | 15 | 10-18 | 13 |
| 2024 | 33.1+/-5.8 | 33 | 27-39 | 18 |
| 2023 | 15.9+/-4.0 | 16 | 12-20 | 20 |
| 2022 | 14.9+/-3.8 | 15 | 11-19 | 14 |
| 2021 | 11.9+/-3.4 | 12 | 9-15 | 21 |
| 2020 | 19.8+/-4.4 | 20 | 15-24 | 30 |
| 2019 | 10.1+/-3.2 | 10 | 7-13 | 18 |
| 2018 | 10.2 +/-3.2 | 10 | 7-13 | 15 |
| 2017 | 15.3 +/- 3.9 | 15 | 11-20 | 17 |
| 2016 | 18.9 +/- 4.4 | 19 | 14-24 | 15 |
| 2015 | 6.9 +/- 2.6 | 7 | 4-10 | 11 |
| 2014 | 9.3 +/- 3.0 | 9 | 6-12 | 8 |
| 2013 | 16.0 +/- 4.0 | 16 | 12-20 | 14 |
| 2012 | 11.2 +/- 3.3 | 11 | 8-15 | 19 |
| 2011 | 16.25 +/- 4.0 | 16 | 12-20 | 19 |
| 2010 | 23.4 +/- 4.8 | 23 | 19-28 | 19 |
| 2009 | 11.5 +/- 3.4 | 12 | 8-15 (6-13 if El Niño) | 9 |
| 2007 | n/a | 15 | n/a | 15 |
References:
Kozar, M.E., Mann, M.E., Camargo, S.J., Kossin, J.P., Evans, J.L., 2012: Stratified statistical models of North Atlantic basin-wide and regional tropical cyclone counts, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D18103, doi:10.1029/2011JD017170.
Mann, M.E., Sabbatelli, T.A., Neu, U., 2007: Evidence for a Modest Undercount Bias in Early Historical Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Counts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L22707, doi:10.1029/2007GL031781.
Sabbatelli, T.A., Mann, M.E., 2007: The Influence of Climate State Variables on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Occurrence Rates, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D17114, doi: 10.1029/2007JD008385.
Vecchi, G.A., Knutson, T.R., 2008: On Estimates of Historical North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity, J.Climate, 21, 3580-3600, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2178.
Footnotes:
The tropical cyclone series was corrected based on an estimated historical undercount taken from Vecchi and Knutson (2008).
Prediction made: April 21, 2026
This webpage last updated: April 23, 2026
