Research

2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season prediction released

ESSC scientists Michael E. Mann and Daniel J. Brouillette and ESSC alumnus Michael Kozar have released their seasonal prediction for the 2022 North Atlantic hurricane season.  The prediction is for another above-normal season.  

Study shows that ITCZ responses to external forcing are region-specific

Byron Steinman, and collaborators including Dr. Mann, analyzed paleoclimate records of precipitation change in the neotropics and climate model simulations that span the preindustrial last millennium to assess ITCZ behavior on multicentury timescales. 

Another record: Ocean warming continues through 2021 despite La Niña conditions

Lijing Cheng, and numerous collaborators including Dr. Michael E. Mann, have extended previous research to conclude that the world’s oceans were again record warm in 2021, for the sixth consecutive year, despite the presence of La Niña conditions.

Heat stress in U.S. may double by the end of the century

Dr. Michael E. Mann and collaborators Sourav Mukherjee (lead author), Ashok Kumar Mishra, and Colin Raymond published a study that shows that areas of the United States with increasing populations will likely experience even higher increases in heat stress.

The 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Penn State ESSC Forecast

ESSC scientists Dr. Michael E. Mann and Daniel J. Brouillette and alumnus Dr. Michael Kozar have released their seasonal prediction for the 2021 North Atlantic hurricane season, which officially starts on 1 June and runs through 30 November.

Apparent Atlantic warming cycle likely an artifact of climate forcing

ESSC scientists Dr. Michael E. Mann and Daniel J. Brouillette and alumni scientists Dr. Byron Steinman and Sonya Miller are co-authors of a study that shows that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is not due to natural factors but, rather, due to the climate forcings of human influence and volcanic eruptions.

Increasing ocean stratification over the past half-century

Dr. Mann with an international team of climate scientists have published the article talking about increasing ocean stratification that decreases ocean productivity and reduces carbon burial.

Atlantic and Pacific oscillations lost in the noise

It was found that the so-called Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation are indistinguishable from the background noise of internal climate variability.

The 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Penn State ESSC Forecast

ESSC scientist Dr. Michael E. Mann, alumnus Dr. Michael Kozar, and researcher Sonya K. Miller have released their seasonal prediction for the 2019 North Atlantic hurricane season, which officially starts on June 1st and runs through November 30th.

Jet Stream from late July 2018.  Image from Ventusky.com

Controlling future summer weather extremes still within our grasp

Dr. Michael Mann and others have published a paper looking at summertime extreme weather patterns in future scenarios of global warming.