Apparent Atlantic warming cycle likely an artifact of climate forcing

ESSC scientists Dr. Michael E. Mann and Daniel J. Brouillette and alumni scientists Dr. Byron Steinman and Sonya Miller are co-authors of a study that shows that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is not due to natural factors but, rather, due to the climate forcings of human influence and volcanic eruptions.

Increasing ocean stratification over the past half-century

Dr. Mann with an international team of climate scientists have published the article talking about increasing ocean stratification that decreases ocean productivity and reduces carbon burial.

Atlantic and Pacific oscillations lost in the noise

It was found that the so-called Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation are indistinguishable from the background noise of internal climate variability.

The 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Penn State ESSC Forecast

ESSC scientist Dr. Michael E. Mann, alumnus Dr. Michael Kozar, and researcher Sonya K. Miller have released their seasonal prediction for the 2019 North Atlantic hurricane season, which officially starts on June 1st and runs through November 30th.

Jet Stream from late July 2018.  Image from

Controlling future summer weather extremes still within our grasp

Dr. Michael Mann and others have published a paper looking at summertime extreme weather patterns in future scenarios of global warming.

The 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Penn State ESSC Forecast

ESSC scientists Michael Mann, alumnus Michael Kozar, and researcher Sonya K. Miller have released their seasonal prediction for the 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane season, which officially tarts on June 1st and runs through November 30th.

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Impact of climate change on New York City’s coastal flood hazard: Increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE

Dr. Andra J. Reed has published a paper with Dr. Michael Mann, Dr. Richard Alley, Dr. David Pollard, and others about the likelihood of more frequent flooding in the New York City region due to climate change and storm surge from tropical systems. 

Record Temperature Streak Bears Anthropogenic Fingerprint

Dr. Michael E. Mann, Sonya K. Miller, Stefan Rahmstorf, Byron A. Steinman, and Martin Tingley conducted a study that proved that human caused warming likely led to the recent streak of record-breaking temperatures. 

Allowable 'carbon 'budget most likely overestimated

A recent article published in Nature Climate Change examines the definition of the "pre-industrial" baseline used for climate change discussions and projections. The group, including ESSC director Dr. Michael Mann, posits that the actual "pre-industrial" era is much earlier than the one used by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC). Changing the baseline could have an impact on targets used in agreements like the Paris Climate Accords.

Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events

Michael E. Mann, distinguished professor of atmospheric science at Penn State University, completed research with Stefan Rahmstorf, Kai Kornhuber and Dim Coumou to demonstrate a direct link between climate change and a large family of extreme recent weather events.